As we head into the 2022 fantasy baseball season I began to look at possible strategies for this year’s draft and one thing stood out to me; there is a lack of reliable base stealers available in the middle rounds. For years we have focused on the decline of the stolen base in fantasy baseball and I think the value may never be higher than it is right now.
One interesting part of the decline shows that while the average number of steals has decreased we have also seen a decrease in the amount of players who are being caught stealing. This may be due to teams being more selective on when to steal instead of just saying, “Hey, you’re fast. Go steal second.” Teams have specialists that they rely on in those key moments and the success rate of steals has never been higher.
Taking a look at the top 100 batters of the 2021 season shows a lack in star power when it comes to steals. In fact, only four batters who finished in the top 100 reached thirty steals. That number drops even further to two when we increase the number to forty. So what does this tell us? It tells us that we should attack steals EARLY and OFTEN when drafting in 2022. Of the projected top fifteen or so picks there are five players who I believe will steal over twenty-five bases in 2022.
1) Fernando Tatis
2) Trea Turner
3) Jose Ramirez
4) Ronald Acuna
5) Bo Bichette
The issue here is these players are typically being drafted in the first or second round. We would be lucky to end up with one of these guys and if we don’t we are immediately in trouble in the stolen base category. So what can we do? We can look for value in the middle round. Guys who may not steal twenty bases, but can manage ten while producing in other categories. These are the real league winners. Here are three players who have an ADP below fifty that can contribute in stolen bases without harming the other categories.
Christian Yelich –Yelich has not been good these past two seasons. That is what is allowing him to be drafted as late as the seventh round in most leagues. It is easy to get caught up in the insanity that was his 2018-2019 seasons, but don’t be fooled he is not that player any more. What he is now is a guy who can still contribute in all five categories, but not a guy who will win you a category by himself. Think 2016-2017 Yelich.
Javier Baez – I know I said I was going to list guys who won’t kill you in a category and Baez is a known AVG killer, but hear me out. I legitimately have never once considered batting average when drafting a player. There is so much more variance in batting average than any other category it is not worth trying to predict. What you are getting with Baez is a guy who will contribute in all categories and with a little luck not kill your average. He has first round potential and can be grabbed in the sixth? Sign me all the way up for that.
Tommy Edman – I love this guy and if I’m lucky he is going to end up on almost every single one of my teams. He is typically being drafted after pick 100 and he has legitimate thirty steal potential as an everyday player hitting at the top of a solid St. Louis lineup. It’s not like he is a slouch in the power department either as he averages a home run every forty-three at bats over his three year career. Give him the 641 AB’s he received last year and that’s fifteen home runs to go with those thirty steals. Yes please. Add in his positional eligibility and you’ve got yourself a league winner.
standardsports 